After the State of the Union speech last month, a call went out to Patch bloggers nationwide for the opportunity to have the White House directly answer questions sent in by the bloggers. If you don't know, the Napa Patch is one of a nationwide series of 864 on line only newspapers owned by AOL/Huffington Post.
The White House ended up answering one of my questions in a video which you can see here: You Asked, the White House Answered.
I have been following the health care issue closely for years now, and read books and blogs about it on a daily basis. Two of the better recent books include Arnold Kling's Crisis of Abundance: Rethinking How We Pay for Health Care on the conservative side, and T.R. Reid's The Healing of America on the liberal side.
I mention this to make a point, I really am looking for answers. I started out preferring a free market solution but have come to see more and more that that just isn't going to work. But the more I read and study, the more confusing it becomes. We are at a crisis point with health care, the debate is a mass of confusion of the "frequently wrong but never in doubt" variety, and the bad numbers are accelerating. People, we are heading to the wall in health care and we better get it figured out fast or we could witness a train wreck on the level of the banking crisis.
I am sure you have heard some numbers, and have some yourself. Several weeks ago I found out my 2012 insurance rate was going up 27 percent and my wife and I will be paying $1,950 a month with a $10,000 deductible. Thinking that perhaps my bill was especially high, I checked with some friends and found that they too are paying around that kind of money. I am not part of a group plan as I have my own independent business so I pay the highest rates, but one friend is going to Kaiser which is supposed to be less expensive, and he pays $800 a month through his employer's group plan. Double that for two, to account for me and my wife and he is not that far below us. One woman on my Facebook page said she pays $2,200 a month for her and her family.
Six years ago my premium was only $650. It has tripled in six years, the deductible has doubled. If it triples again in the next six years there is no way I can afford it. It is hard to afford now, and I make a well above average income. I don't see how people can pay for their insurance out there, and it appears that unless something drastic happens we could see the whole system break down in the next five years.
Employers are bailing out of paying for insurance because they can't afford it either, and that trend is rapidly accelerating. In the last two years alone, employer coverage of insurance for employees dropped from 73 percent to 63 percent in the U.S., that is almost a 15 percent decrease in employers willing to provide insurance in two years! What happens when another 15 percent drop out, then the year after, and then ?
Right now the number of uninsured has grown to over 50 million, plus there are 25 million people so badly underinsured that they essentially don't have insurance. Think a minimum wage worker with a $10,000 deductible. What's the use of that? That's out of 300 million people, 75 million. What happens when that hits 100 million, 150 million? Do we just keep the same system?
Nobody should have to pay $2,000 a month for health insurance, hardly anyone can afford that. You can forget about entrepreneurs going out innovating to repair the economy, they can't quit their jobs because they need the health insurance. This is hurting us in so many ways large and small.
So when I hear the White House say "will save $2,000 a year eventually on health insurance," I think, that is not enough, not nearly enough. So I will go from $1,950 a month to $1,750 a month, but in the mean time I will have had increases up above $2,000 a month, so what is the use of that?
The problem is not insurance, really, it is the cost of health care itself. And why health care is so much more expensive in the United States than other first world countries is a very complicated issue. McKinsey & Co. recently did an extensive study on why health care is so expensive and climbing so rapidly, and a more easily digestible version was explained by Dr. Aaron Carroll of the Incidental Economist here: http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/what-makes-the-us-health-care-system-so-expensive-introduction/
What stands out is that there is no single cause. What I observe about the comments by various people is that they clearly break down into the same partisan debate like everything else in politics these days. The conservative commentors are always demanding free market solutions, but they fail to describe exactly how that might be implemented.
First of all, they don't want Medicare reformed and it is a government run "socialist" program, so right away there is a hint of hypocrisy about the free market demand. The Ryan plan amounts to charging more to the patients, and isn't that the very problem to begin with, it costs too much? No solution there.
It would be better if there were a free market solution, but in order to have a free market you have to have a market to begin with. Right now the true market is only for those who can also afford a yacht, the price of health care is so high. That is a major problem with free market solutions, most people would be cut out of the market.
What Kling points out so well in his book is that we have what he calls a premium health care system: Everyone gets a Mercedes whether they can afford it or not. That is how our system is set up, and we are trying to keep everyone at that service level and it is just not possible and never will be.
In terms of finding our way back to a free market, we are so far down a road of governmental solutions that there is really no going back, and sooner or later we are going to have to realize that. To truly have a free market the whole market would have to be free, otherwise you would get the distortions we already have. It would involve getting rid of Medicare, the Veterans health care system, all the various state and federal regulations—folks it just isn't going to happen.
The fact is that Medicare is far more efficient than private markets. Private insurance costs have been growing at an annual rate about 2 percent higher than Medicare since the late 90's even though Medicare has a sicker population. This flies in the face of constant claims that government is less efficient than the private sector—not so in this case.
When you look at costs in other countries, it is clear that they have been able to contain costs far better than the U.S. and provide comparable service.
There is a lot of confusing debate about whether our health care system is better for all the money we spend over France, England, Canada, etc., but at some point when you have a system that is threatened with financial collapse that becomes an inane argument. All these countries have good systems that have contained costs well. If you are going to argue for American exceptionalism then you better be exceptional, and right now we are not, just more expensive.
Finally, in the midst of all this arguing back and forth at least Obama did something, pass the ACA, Affordable Care Act. That is more than anyone else has done, and at least the ice has been broken. We better hurry up and do a lot more before our whole system collapses, which is a bigger threat than many people realize. Most people don't recognize it because their employers are paying for them, but that is going away rapidly because employers can't afford it anymore either.
The law of sustainability says, if something can't be sustained then it won't be. Our system is unsustainable and the only question now is how soon will it collapse.
A lot more needs to be done, and instead the Democrats and Republicans in Washington are having inane arguments about contraception. Nero fiddles while Rome burns.
Louisa Hufstader
10:15 am on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Michael, thank you for this well-researched and sobering post. I just want to clarify with regard to the White House invitation that it wasn't a general one to all Patch bloggers. I just happened to be having my annual review with my boss when the word came through that they wanted some questions, and we both thought of you immediately. (Taking advantage of my situation, I added Julio Soriano, whose question did not get picked.) In all, the White House answered questions from just seven Patch sites. Thanks for making ours one of them.
Michael Haley
2:42 pm on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
oh, I stand corrected. I didn't realize what pull you have!
thanks Louisa
mark gasster
11:25 am on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Wow, the Napa Blogger has become a shill/propagandist for the White House. Even to the point of using their talking points. Many key factors were left out of your blog that are relevant such as Medical Malpractice Insurance, the Billions of unpaid medical bills picked up by the taxpayer for Illegal immigrants using America's medical services. You also left out that of the 1600 suppliers of Health Insurance, some states limit those carriers with their state, California being one of them.
Michael Haley
12:33 pm on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Here's a nice summary of some of the GOP primary candidates positions:
http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/candidates-stances-on-health-care/
Also, Romneycare is working in Massacheusetts! Too bad he can't campaign on it now, but Ann Coulter is claiming that it is a conservative plan now! Pigs are flying!!! If Coulter and other conservatives want to claim credit, I am all for it if we can nationalize it. But that would be the same as Obamacare and we hate Obama so I guess we can't have that.
http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2012/01/31/massachusetts-miracle-romney%e2%80%99s-health-care-reform-plan-wor/
Michael Haley
12:23 pm on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Mark, there is tons of info that I left out, yet wrote the longest article I have ever written. We are not going to solve this extremely complicated problem in one article. I am aware of all those issues and there are plenty more.
But as a Republican, my question to you is, where is the free market plan? Rick Perry advocated for raising the age of eligibility for medicare, Ron Paul incredibly says that Drs should see poor people for free, if you look at the plans as stated by all the primary contenders they are a hodge podge of more government intervention and totally unrealistic unworkable plans.
A shill? I just want some answers.
Juanita Boutwell
12:32 pm on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Michael, another great post. I was disappointed in the WH's answer to your question. They indicated that having premium costs go up slower is saving me money - not the way I see it.
I'm glad that you pointed out that this is a train wreck waiting to happen. I am in the same situation regarding premiums and deductibles. Another side efect of a high deductible is not having routine screenings done these days, as they end up being all out of pocket. This article from the NYTimes indicates its pretty widespread http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/14/business/14health.html?_r=2 .
There may be a lot of cases of things that would have been cheaper to catch early but end up being expensive because they were not detected, however the individuals just simply did not have money to have the screenings done after paying their premiums.
I have pre-existing conditions, so I wouldnt dare change insurance companies even if I could find someone cheaper.
I dont have any answers, except I believe it is the responsibility of all parties - providers, insurance, pharmaceutical and patients - to reduce costs however they can. One thing I discovered just recently was that there are outside labs you can go to for lab work that are significantly less expensive than hospital labs. But I dont think that's common knowledge, so people just go to the address listed on their lab order.
Michael Haley
5:34 pm on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
thanks Juanita, I was too, disappointed in the answer because a lot more needs to be done. Speaking of routine screenings, a friend emailed me in response to the article and said that he got a routine screening but in order to get the insurance to pay for it the Dr gave him a diagnosis that he really didn't have. Now he is stuck with having that diagnoses which could raise his rates later on.
At my age and with my issues I don't dare change provider either, what I am worried about is getting cancelled.
I started questioning my Dr one day about a prescription he was writing, is there a less expensive treatment, and he just looked at me like...what? Then he said, your insurance is paying for it, anyway, isn't it? That's one of the problems right there.
Michael Haley
2:38 pm on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
I have gotten some interesting emails, I want to post part of one here from a health care policy expert:
"But I completely disagree that "Medicare is far more efficient than private markets". They DO keep overhead low because they only make the rules, and pay the claims that are submitted. But more than one-third of what Medicare pays for is: 1) medically unnecessary, 2) of such poor quality that it has to be redone, or 3) outright fraud. That's why, adjusting for health status, Miami seniors are 3 times more likely to have cardiac surgery than Minnesota seniors."
There is debate about whether Medicare is more efficient, I believe even at the incredible level of inefficiencies we have in Medicare there is no doubt cost increases have been lower over the last forty years and since the late 90's, as I said.
If you qualify it and look at the numbers differently you can make a different argument, but there is no doubt we have a very inefficient private system that is unsustainable.
Louisa Hufstader
2:44 pm on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
I wish these "experts" were confident enough of their claims to post them here in the comment thread, instead of sending them to you via email, Michael.
Michael Haley
2:47 pm on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
I get a lot of emails every blog that don't get posted, sometimes it is because they can't figure out how to sign up, sometimes I don't know what, or they just don't want to be public and would rather tell me. I always encourage them to post here to add to the debate.
Louisa Hufstader
2:50 pm on Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Thanks! You always generate fascinating discussions on topics I might formerly have avoided.
Dean Alm
7:57 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
The underlying issue in the cost of American health care is the lack of preventative care which includes obesity or excercise as a lifestyle choice. The average American today is close to obese, among the poor it's worse. Any idea who pays for that? It's not the rich among the 50 million uninsured who stand in line at the free clinics. The true effects of all that junk food pushed at the poor and middle classes will come back in dialisis treatments for the diabetic explosion that has already begun. California could always break from the union, accept immigration, revise health care and start charging admission like the feds are doing with their $200,000.00 green card program.
mark gasster
8:23 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Spoken like the true left!
Michael Haley
9:01 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Dean and Mark, I just don't think you can point to any single issue like this as being the cause of the health care cost crisis, including pointing to Obama. Take a look at the chart I included at the top. In 1970 costs in the US were the same as in Europe and other first world countries. We skyrocketed up and were way above them in 2005, well before Obama was even heard of.
Fortunately or unfortunately as the case may be it is a multifaceted problem, that is why I included a link to that McKinsey article to lay out the major issues.
mark gasster
8:22 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
The real issue is having the government dictate to us what our health care should be. Simple math will show what a cluster it will become and how the "State health care agencies" will fail the people. England's NHS has a bureaucracy of 1.4 million for 51 mililon population. The US is 6 times that size, that is almost 9 million more federal employees. A quick glance over the 'pond' will show that the "State Health Care" systems create tremendous debt. As per the ACA Doctors will be punished, not get paid, if they see a patient and then that patient ends up in the hospital. The market place works when it is allowed to. Restricting the market, as is the case in CA, only drives up the cost. The real increase in medical care is Med Malpractice insurance. That was never addressed by the Democrat written bill. as an aside, 45% of all physicians have stated they will leave practice once OCare kicks in. Businesses are already dropping coverage for their employees. Additionally, with the advent of the so-called women's reproductive health mandate just levied by the White House, it is clear they do not care about violating the Constitution to get what they want. Sorry, but my freedom of speech is much more important than health care for 22 million illegal immigrants!
Louisa Hufstader
8:35 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
"So-called women's"? What would you prefer that we be called, Mark?
Dean Alm
9:04 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Hi Mark; left or right of center is such BS, at some point you have to do what is right for the country and the citizens as a whole. The politics played here in America every 4 years keeps pushing us further from the hard decisions that other countries have made for the benefit of all. I am Canadian and believe the government has certain responsibilities, making tough choices is critical, that's why they are elected! The Greeks are dealing with austerity measures now that would cripple America. If we can't get control of the budget and debt we could see our interest on the deficit go from 1.5% to 5% very quickly, we could't pay the interest alone. Would you loan your government money at 1.5%? How high can the national debt go? Obama is making tough choices, nothing is off the table but could someone give the guy a hand?
Michael Haley
1:17 pm on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
The US is 6 times that size, that is almost 9 million more federal employees.<<<
Mark, to me it is about cost, and you would have to compare the overall costs of that to what we are paying, and the fact is that the UK has much lower costs than we do. Your argument here seems to be that having a federal employee, and nine million seems vastly overstated, but even if it is you would still have to compare costs and their costs are lower. Just saying that someone is a federal employee and that is bad doesn't wash. If they cost less than private employees then we have to consider it, I think.
Michael Haley
1:27 pm on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
I think when you look at the facts all your numbers in this entire post are incorrect. There are not 22 million illegal immigrants, there are 12 million and immigration has drastically been reduced in any case. Obama has pretty much shut down the border with enforcement that is even stricter than under Bush, plus our economy and the improving economy in Mexico have slowed immigration to a trickle.
On the medical malpractice, the total of what is spent in extra tests plus legal awards and added insurance totals about $55 billion a year---in a total health care cost of $2.4 trillion. Even if you got rid of all of it, ended all law suits and unnecessary tests, you would save 2.4% of the total bill. A drop in the bucket. I agree that we need malpractice reform, but it is not going to make much difference in the overall costs.
Here is a good article that it explains it in more detail:
http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/what-makes-the-us-health-care-system-so-expensive-red-herrings/
read down to the section on malpractice, note the graph at the bottom
Michael Haley
1:33 pm on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
45% of all physicians are going to leave practice once Obamacare kicks in--Mark do you seriously believe that? It doesn't pass the smell test. All these doctors are just going to give up their whole livelihood, why? because they might make a little less than they did before, if that is even true? Go from making $350,000 to $315,000 a year so they quit en masse?
It's an absurd statement on the face of it. Republicans have seemed to enter some alternative universe where they can just make up all these "facts" that have no basis in fact but satisify their political positions. This is obviously one of them. All these "facts" seem to come back to one thing, hatred of Obama and a desire to create all these things to blame him for. It is so over the top that frankly it gets entirely unbelievable.
Michael Haley
8:53 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
"Spoken like the true left!"
Mark, I only have a couple minutes this morning and will be back later to write more. I appreciate your coming back to fill us in on your views.
Not sure what to say to the above comment. Should I say "spoken like the true right?" Labelling and dismissing people like that doesn't seem very conducive to dialogue. I think we need to have a discussion about these issues or we will never resolve them. When you say things like that it makes me feel like there is no point in discussing anything because anything I might have to say has already been discounted and dismissed.
Michael Haley
9:28 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
"So-called women's"? What would you prefer that we be called, Mark?"
To be fair, Louisa, I think he was referring to the law or mandate, not to women.
.
Louisa Hufstader
9:34 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Okay Michael, I could only find my cranky pants this morning!
mark gasster
9:50 am on Wednesday, February 15, 2012
I prefer to call it what it actually is. Forcing Contraception on the Catholic Church is 1.) A violation of the 1st Amendment to the Constitution and, 2.) Violates the concept of the separation of Church & State. Additionally, they want it given for "Free!" Nothing is free, the cost will be spread amongst the policy holders to pick up the cost. Now I think that anti-contraception drugs as prescribed by a Doctor should be covered by insurance, ONLY if that individual so desires it! To force someone against their Religious beliefs to have this is unconscionable. It is a straight up attack on personal liberty. It has nothing to do with health care.
Dean, we already are a debtor na5tion Dean. Our President is making sure of that! Our debt is larger than our GDP and under the proposed budget trillions more in debt will be added as our economy grinds to a snails pace. We are not far behind the EU, The weight of Government spending has crushed them, as it will us. I live in California and our State is $1 trillion in debt. Are our political leaders working on a solution? NO! they are working on raising taxes to fill a tiny hole in their budget to keep on spending. they are selfish, bloated politicians who care only for money and power. Typical story.
Scott Yeager
3:11 pm on Friday, February 17, 2012
Michael - I admire anyone trying to deal with those who believe in the "free" market of health care with facts. Facts don't matter. Faith does.
I wasn't aware that T.R. Reid was liberal. I thought he was just stating the facts.
Five Myths About Health Care in the Rest of the World
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/21/AR2009082101778.html
Here is a key difference between those who have private insurance and our for profit system:
"The key difference is that foreign health insurance plans exist only to pay people's medical bills, not to make a profit. The United States is the only developed country that lets insurance companies profit from basic health coverage. "
Here is more reality:
"This fragmentation is another reason that we spend more than anybody else and still leave millions without coverage. All the other developed countries have settled on one model for health-care delivery and finance; we've blended them all into a costly, confusing bureaucratic mess.
Which, in turn, punctures the most persistent myth of all: that America has "the finest health care" in the world. We don't. In terms of results, almost all advanced countries have better national health statistics than the United States does. In terms of finance, we force 700,000 Americans into bankruptcy each year because of medical bills. In France, the number of medical bankruptcies is zero. Britain: zero. Japan: zero. Germany: zero. "
And it goes on and on.
Michael Haley
7:59 pm on Friday, February 17, 2012
Scott, thanks for the info. One starts reading all this and it becomes pretty obvious that we should take a cue from some of the other more successful countries. What is also interesting is that consumers have as much freedom in systems like France as we do---at less than half the cost.
You are right about Reid, I have no idea of his political affiliation, better put I should have said he presents facts that tend to support a liberal point of view.